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Courto Weekly: 2026 WNBA Playoffs, Semifinals Recap

How Courto's winner picks, spread leans and total leans held up against the pre-tip market across all 6 Semifinals games, and where each miss turned.

Courto Weekly4 min readPublic education assetNo trading advice

Courto Weekly4 min read

Coverage window: Semifinals, all 6 games, Oct 5 → Oct 10, 2026 (CST tip dates)

Summary

Semifinals scorecard of Courto's directional reads against the market across 6 games, Oct 5 to Oct 10, 2026 (CST tip dates): total 4-2 (67%), spread 5-1 (83%) and Courto's winner pick 4-2 (67%)

The semifinals are in the books. Atlanta swept New York 3-0, and Golden State swept Las Vegas 3-0. Compared with the pre-tip market, the spread was the steadiest read at five of six, and Courto's winner pick and the total each matched four of six. The WNBA Finals open with Dream at Valkyries on Oct 18 at 03:30 CST.

Combined Round 1 and Semifinals scorecard across 16 games: total, spread and Courto's winner pick each 11-5 (69%), with Round 1 at 7-3 / 6-4 / 7-3 and Semifinals at 4-2 / 5-1 / 4-2

Across the first two rounds, all three reads sit at the same mark: 11 of 16. Round 1 had already locked totals and the winner pick at 7 of 10. The semifinals added a sharper spread stretch and kept the other two in step.

Highlights

Game-by-game grid of all 6 Semifinals games comparing Courto's number with the market number on winner pick, spread and total, with each final and whether each read matched it; Dream–Liberty Game 2 and Valkyries–Aces Game 2 matched on all three

Dream–Liberty Game 2 was the cleanest board of the round: Courto's pick of Atlanta, the Dream -3 spread lean and the Over all matched a 101-98 overtime final. Naz Hillmon's layup with 20.8 seconds left in OT put Atlanta ahead for good, and Angel Reese finished with 23. Valkyries–Aces Game 2 was another full match, a 83-81 finish where Golden State held on after leading by as many as 17. Five of the six spread leans matched the final, including both Game 3 underdog covers.

Underdog win probability, market versus Courto, in the four games where Courto rated the underdog higher; the underdog won three of them, Golden State in Games 1 and 3 against Las Vegas and Atlanta in Game 3 at New York

In four games, Courto rated the underdog higher than the market did. Three of those underdogs won: Golden State in Games 1 and 3 against Las Vegas, and Atlanta in Game 3 at New York. Two of those three still went against Courto's winner pick, because the model sat just over 50% on the other side. The only miss in the set was Liberty Game 1 at Atlanta.

Outliers

Games where the final went against Courto's lean: one spread miss in which Atlanta won by 10 past both Courto's and the market's numbers, and two total misses with finals of 131 and 168 points

The only uncovered spread lean was Liberty +4.6 in Game 1 at Atlanta. Both total misses were Overs that finished under the market line, including the 131-point Valkyries–Aces opener. The two winner-pick misses were both Game 3 home favorites that Courto had at 51%. Here's where each miss turned, from the play-by-play.

G3 Dream @ Liberty (Courto picked New York at 51% vs the market's 57.8%; Atlanta won 85-83). Allisha Gray did not play (left hand). Atlanta led by as many as 12 and held a 66-54 edge after three. New York cut it to 81-79 on Breanna Stewart free throws with 2:12 left. Jordin Canada's runner made it 83-79, Jonquel Jones answered at 83-81, and DeWanna Bonner's two free throws with 6.2 seconds left put Atlanta up 85-81. Stewart's layup at 0.2 made the final 85-83. Angel Reese scored 22 and Rhyne Howard 21. Courto's ATL +2.7 spread lean matched; the Over lean (176 vs market 171.8) finished at 168.

G3 Valkyries @ Aces (Courto picked Las Vegas at 51% vs the market's 61.5%; Golden State won 87-77 in OT). Las Vegas led 45-36 at halftime, then scored seven points in the third while Golden State took a 53-52 lead. Jackie Young's layup with 26.6 seconds left in regulation tied it at 71-71. Overtime went 16-6 to Golden State. Kayla Thornton scored 18 and Gabby Williams added free throws and a step-back in the extra period. Las Vegas shot 38% for the game. Courto's GS +3.9 spread lean and the Over both matched.

G1 Liberty @ Dream (Courto leaned Liberty +4.6; Atlanta won by 10). New York led 40-37 at halftime. In the third, after Leonie Fiebich's three made it 43-39, Atlanta scored the next 13 points and led 52-43 before New York made a free throw. Atlanta won the quarter 32-15. Jordin Canada scored 25 points, 20 of them after halftime, and Atlanta finished with 14 steals and 18 fast-break points to New York's zero. New York had 19 turnovers, which Atlanta turned into 32 points. Courto's pick of Atlanta and the Over lean both matched.

G1 Aces @ Valkyries (Courto leaned Over; the total was 131). The teams combined for 25 points in the second quarter and shot 34% and 38% from the field. Golden State outrebounded Las Vegas 52-25, including 17 offensive boards, and led by as many as 13. Gabby Williams scored 25 and A'ja Wilson 24. Courto's pick of Golden State and the GS -3 spread lean both matched.

How we graded the Semifinals: we compare Courto's pregame number with the last pre-tip market line. On spread and total, Courto's lean is whichever side of the line its number falls on. On moneyline, we grade Courto's winner pick. These are probabilities, not guarantees.