Courto Weekly: 2026 WNBA Playoffs, Round 1 Recap
How Courto's winner picks, spread leans and total leans held up against the pre-tip market across all 10 games of Round 1, and where each miss turned.
Coverage window: Round 1, all 10 games, Sep 28 → Oct 3, 2026 (CST tip dates)
Summary
Round 1 is in the books. New York beat Minnesota 2-0, Atlanta beat Washington 2-0, Las Vegas beat Indiana 2-1, and Golden State beat Dallas 2-1. Compared with the pre-tip market, totals and Courto's winner pick were the steadiest reads, and the spread was the toughest. The semifinals start Oct 5, with Liberty at Dream at 02:00 CST and Aces at Valkyries at 04:00 CST.
Three of the four pre-playoff favorites advanced. The exception was the biggest one: Minnesota, our pre-playoff title favorite, went out without winning a game. A probability forecast has to leave room for that 22.8% outcome.
Highlights
Liberty–Lynx Game 2 was the one game where all three reads matched the final: Courto's pick of New York, the Liberty +3.4 spread lean and the Under. Minnesota never led, New York won the paint 44-28, and the game finished at 158 points. Totals were as reliable as the winner pick, with seven of the ten finals landing on Courto's side of the line, including the 208-point overtime game in Dallas.
In eight games, Courto rated the underdog higher than the market did. All three underdogs that won were Liberty or Wings teams: New York in both games against Minnesota, and Dallas in Game 2.
Outliers
Most of the spread misses look alike: Courto leaned toward the underdog, and the favorite won by more than either number. On totals, the first two Fever–Aces games went over Courto's Under lean, and Wings–Valkyries Game 3 fell well short of the Over. Here's where each miss turned, from the play-by-play.
G1 Liberty @ Lynx (Courto picked Minnesota at 64% vs the market's 70.6%; New York won by 16). Breanna Stewart scored 34 on 11-of-18 shooting, and New York went 13-of-25 from three. Minnesota shot 42% and never led by more than six. Courto's spread and total leans, Liberty +7 and the Under, both matched.
G2 Valkyries @ Wings (Courto picked Golden State at 55% vs the market's 61.5%; Dallas won 108-100 in OT). It was tied 93-93 after regulation. Dallas took overtime 15-7 behind Arike Ogunbowale's 45 points. The Wings went 32-of-37 at the line to Golden State's 20-of-23, and the Valkyries were called for 28 fouls. The Wings +4.2 lean and the Over both matched.
G2 Dream @ Mystics (Courto picked Washington at 52% vs the market's 38.5%, with a Mystics +3.9 spread lean; Atlanta won by 18). Washington never led. The Mystics got within 65-62 at Q4 9:07, then Atlanta ran off 13 straight. Washington had 19 turnovers, which Atlanta turned into 23 points, and the Mystics shot 22-of-58 with no fast-break points.
G1 Wings @ Valkyries (Courto leaned Wings +7.7; Golden State won by 24). It was 21-20 after one quarter. Golden State won the second 37-11 and led 58-31 at the half. The Valkyries made 18 of 36 threes, turned it over just five times and led by as many as 36.
G1 Mystics @ Dream (Courto leaned Mystics +8; Atlanta won by 15). Washington led 41-36 at halftime, but Atlanta won the third quarter 29-12. Washington's 23 turnovers became 27 Atlanta points, and the Dream went 25-of-26 at the line.
G3 Fever @ Aces (Courto leaned Fever +4.7; Las Vegas won by 11). Kelsey Mitchell's three made it 82-80 with 3:00 left. Las Vegas then scored 12 of the last 15 points, 10 of them at the line. The Fever shot 9-of-32 from three, and A'ja Wilson scored 36.
G3 Wings @ Valkyries (Courto leaned Over; the total was 150). The game had 81 points in the first half but only 69 in the second, when the teams combined to shoot 23-of-68. Dallas built a 16-point lead on a 20-0 run, then Golden State outscored the Wings 40-20 the rest of the way. Paige Bueckers went 3-of-14.
G1 Fever @ Aces (Courto leaned Under; the total was 187). There were 109 points by halftime. Las Vegas shot 59% for the game, and Wilson scored 38 on 15-of-19.
G2 Aces @ Fever (Courto leaned Under; the total was 188). Free throws pushed it over. Las Vegas went 30-of-34 at the line, Indiana went 17-of-24, and Indiana scored 58 points in the paint.
How we graded Round 1: we compare Courto's pregame number with the last pre-tip market line. On spread and total, Courto's lean is whichever side of the line its number falls on. On moneyline, we grade Courto's winner pick. These are probabilities, not guarantees.